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Venson


Joined: Jul 23, 2007
Points: 1900

Research . . .
Original Message   Mar 16, 2009 1:52 pm
Hi,

I'd like to start researching financials and annual reports regarding some of the more significant vacuum makers -- both corporate and private. Surely there's a way for private individuals to do this but I need some advice and ideas as to how to go about it without the process becoming expensive.

Thanks,

Venson
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CarmineD


Joined: Dec 31, 2007
Points: 5894

Re: Research . . .
Reply #22   Aug 11, 2009 7:04 am
This Peter Huber article appears in the August 24 edition of Forbes magazine.  Enjoy.  Takes innovation to a whole new level.

Carmine D.

Companies & Strategies

My Tax-Free Roomba

Peter Huber, 08.05.09, 06:00 PM EDT
Forbes Magazine dated August 24, 2009


I see a jobless recovery every time one of my three iRobots cruises around the floors of my home. The Roomba vacuums most of the house. The Dirt Dog does the heavy lifting in the basement, garage and den. The Scooba scrubs the kitchen floor. What I want next is a mini-Scooba that gets into the tightest corners of bathrooms. Then a stair climber, a window-cleaning crawler and a hockey-puck-size scrubber of counters and sinks.

Robots are smart, tireless and effective--and over the last two years they've cut our spending on household help by 80%. My thanks to the Pentagon for helping fund development of the technology for bomb disposal and such.

In all the economic gloom many people seem to have forgotten that we live in the most extraordinarily fecund technological age in history. This ought to be a terrific time for investors. Deploying labor-saving technology requires a lot of new capital but offers big productivity payoffs to businesses that buy the right stuff. Low-skill workers, on the other hand, have much reason to stay gloomy.

People pushing vacuums and mops aren't going to keep getting smarter, cheaper, faster and more reliable, but iRobots certainly are. Mass production is slashing the cost and boosting the capabilities of high-power semiconductors and motors that control the flow of power to the wheels of hybrid cars. The electric drivetrains get their intelligence from digital microprocessors, which improve even faster. Incorporated into big robots rather than cars, these same technologies can assemble the cars themselves or anything else that's built on an assembly line. The management of robots is being automated, too, using increasingly powerful software and networks that link them horizontally across factory floors, and vertically through supply chains, which span raw materials sources to retailers.

Employment in the service sector of the economy is also vulnerable to competition from intelligent machines. Car mechanics connect a computer on the shop floor to the one under the hood and then do as the machines direct. And the mechanics fix a lot less than they used to, because friction, wear and factory defects plummet when robots machine the parts and assemble the cars. McDonald's ( MCD - news - people ) has already automated much of what it takes to move the calories from the farm to the drive-through window and will inevitably automate almost all the burger flipping and bag filling, too. Secretarial help largely disappeared from many professional lives years ago. Travel agents, sales clerks and cashiers are slipping out of lives that view shopping as a chore, not a social activity. Digital technologies are fast displacing the printers, distributors and retailers that stand between readers and publishers.

Higher-skilled service providers are next in line. Many of the hours billed by accountants melt out of my life as wired networks knit together my electronic paychecks, financial accounts and tax returns. I've hired hundreds of bright young researchers over the course of my professional life; today I get answers from Google ( GOOG - news - people ) in far less time than it would take to explain most of my questions to a live assistant. WolframAlpha, the "computational knowledge engine" for retrieving and crunching numbers and solving equations, could well emerge as the Google of the quantitative world.

Much of the time Washington seems determined to help kick the marginally competitive labor off the edge even faster. The prospect of new payroll taxes will certainly accelerate automation--I don't pay Social Security or health care taxes on my Roomba. Machines don't join unions and don't hire lawyers to pursue far-fetched claims of discrimination or job-related injuries. For shareholders and lenders, companies that invest in machines have become much safer bets than companies that invest in people. Machines don't use political muscle to seize the company's assets when businesses get into trouble.

Washington can undoubtedly find ways to suppress investment in the machines, too. Environmental edicts that jack up the price of energy--electricity especially--will suppress investment in chip fabs, Web server farms and all other energy-intensive industries. Tax laws are easily jiggered to discourage capital purchases and prop up uneconomic employment. But that kind of employment will have to be subsidized by the economic kind--which can instead flee to India or China. Washington's choice now is between a jobless recovery and no U.S. recovery at all.

Peter Huber is a senior fellow of the Manhattan Institute and coauthor of The Bottomless Well (Basic Books, January 2005).

This message was modified Aug 11, 2009 by CarmineD
Venson


Joined: Jul 23, 2007
Points: 1900

Re: Research . . .
Reply #23   Aug 11, 2009 9:28 am
Thanks Carmine. This article is both totally cool and totally frightening.

For now at least, a good housekeeper with skills and situated in the right position can command a gross of $1,000 or more per week. An enviable income even to some college grads these days I think. Robots can't scamble an egg yet, choose a rib roast at the market or walk a kid across the street. Maybe for that area there's still a little time.

Nonetheless, the Roomba robots have improved and will improve over time. You'll note that there was no nitpickling on the author's part about deep cleaning, cyclonics, high air-filtration or weight. The issue was about getting into corners.

The real "plus point" is that you can go out and buy a device to roam your floors and never have have to do it yourself or pay someone to do it for you and thus be obligated with filing tax info or paying insurance premiums.

Yet the bigger picture did get me to thinking. We all can't be born Einstein so what's to be done in future for those or ourselves who are not if we mechanize to the point there's little need simple labor by all those who don't make it to the top.

I have a good friend who has twin sons and a younger boy. One of the twins, really a great kid now entering into his teens, has been extremely depressed as he has some learning disabilities and feels that he's "dumb." Of course all -- mother, father, friends, counselors -- are trying to help him through and impress upon him that he is not any less than anyone else, that he only processes information in a different way than some others. The subject of this young man came up the other day as my friend and I were talking and my immediate response was, "Well, not to worry, he can work with his hands. Lots of people do." You've shown me how wrong I may be.

Another question just raised the other day came up as another friend of mine and I were discussing the "cash-for-clunkers" thing. Per my friend, hypothetically, the rebates may help keep the auto industry afloat and save jobs or maybe even open up new jobs. I'd forgotten about the robots in use in the auto industry. They weld, they paint and do all manner of tasks priorly handle by human workers in a very precise and less expensive fashion and with little need of human hands save for programming and repair. I now have to call this guy back and ask him what exactly is to be saved.

Best,

Venson
HARDSELL


Joined: Aug 22, 2007
Points: 1293

Re: Research . . .
Reply #24   Aug 11, 2009 11:47 am
Venson wrote:



Another question just raised the other day came up as another friend of mine and I were discussing the "cash-for-clunkers" thing. Per my friend, hypothetically, the rebates may help keep the auto industry afloat and save jobs or maybe even open up new jobs. I'd forgotten about the robots in use in the auto industry. They weld, they paint and do all manner of tasks priorly handle by human workers in a very precise and less expensive fashion and with little need of human hands save for programming and repair. I now have to call this guy back and ask him what exactly is to be saved.

Best,

Venson


Executive salaries and bonuses.
CarmineD


Joined: Dec 31, 2007
Points: 5894

Re: Research . . .
Reply #25   Aug 11, 2009 1:12 pm
Hi Venson:

I enjoyed the iRobot article and its nuances of meaning for the economy.  I though you and others would too.  I like the products and the product implications.  I always have since their inception on the market/industry in October 2002.  Like you I noticed the complete lack of nitty gritty mechanics about the clean up processes and procedures.  Not even vacuums, technically.  But they do their jobs at reasonable and affordable prices without alot of manual intervention by users. 

Not to worry about your friend's son.  God provides.  Ask him to read the life of St. John Mary Vianney, the Cure de Ars.  Almost flunked latin.  Relegated to a small parish of 270 that is no bigger today than back in his day.  The priests in the surrounding areas joined forces and signed a petition to the local ordinary to have St. John Mary Vianney removed from the parish.  St. John Mary Vianney got wind of the petition and asked to be the first to sign it.  He was a very humble man and accepted his position in life with great joy.  Pope Benedict XVI has declared this year the year of the priests with St. John Mary Vianney as the patron saint.  Another Saint in the making is Solanus Casey, home bred from Michigan, who suffered with a similar background as the Cure de Ars.  Doing what we do daily with perfect love is what matters.

Carmine D.

This message was modified Aug 11, 2009 by CarmineD
CarmineD


Joined: Dec 31, 2007
Points: 5894

Re: Research . . .
Reply #26   Aug 11, 2009 1:22 pm
WRT cash for clunkers, not one of my favorite government sponsored programs, it's a temporary fix.  It's successful in drawing out the past/future pent up demand for new cars.  How?  By throwing buyers some crumbs.  Once the government funds run out, then what?  Back to business as normal.  New auto sales will come to a screeching halt.  Government bureacrats don't realize that the markets have to find their own equilibrium.  Not with taxpayer bail outs and subsidies.  Huge waste of time, money and used vehicles, which if recycled back into the market would provide stimulus for parts, repairs, charities, etc.  Carmine's Rule:  Whatever the Government's program tries to accomplish, the exact opposite results. 

Carmine D.

Venson


Joined: Jul 23, 2007
Points: 1900

Re: Research . . .
Reply #27   Aug 11, 2009 1:54 pm
HARDSELL wrote:
Executive salaries and bonuses.

HARDSELL,

I think you've hit the nail right on the head.

Venson
Venson


Joined: Jul 23, 2007
Points: 1900

Re: Research . . .
Reply #28   Aug 11, 2009 2:27 pm
CarmineD wrote:
Whatever the Government's program tries to accomplish, the exact opposite results. 

Carmine D.

In our hard pressed times, I'd be more happy if Mr. Obama took off the Santa suit and just said, "Tighten your belts and buck up" and left it at that as he sought to fix but not placate. This is not to say that I don't at least have some idea of his reasoning. There are those among the "movers and shakers" and the "haves" sorted out from the "jave nots" that you just have to try to make happy in some way, shape or form.

Nonetheless, sorry but I'm still asking for equal opportunity here.

My 20-year-old vacuum is not filtering well. Think of the health risks . . . the potential lung damage . . . the medical cost my jobless self may incur for tax payers. I'm breaking my back traveling up and down the stairs with my old blunderbuss of a Hoover!!! Why I could end up wheelchair bound any day now. . . . . My pistol-grip handheld is giving me carpal tunnel syndrome.

Rebates for all I say or none.

Venson
CarmineD


Joined: Dec 31, 2007
Points: 5894

Re: Research . . .
Reply #29   Aug 11, 2009 3:42 pm
Venson wrote:

. . the potential lung damage . . . the medical cost my jobless self may incur for tax payers. I'm breaking my back traveling up and down the stairs with my old blunderbuss of a Hoover!!! Why I could end up wheelchair bound any day now. . . . . My pistol-grip handheld is giving me carpal tunnel syndrome.

Rebates for all I say or none.

Venson



Hi Venson:  Join the masses.  I had pneumonia, as I said, and at risk for it.  I have 3 herniated discs in my lower back from an Army injury and collect no VA benefits for it.  Boxed in the Army and in concert with a fall off a ladder and using my right hand to break the fall I have CTS.  I could go on but what's the use.  Wheelchair?  Me?  My brother had ALS for 25 years and never used one.  Crawled around on his knees until he passed, up and down steps too and into and out of the car, which he couldn't close the door on because he wouldn't be able to open it with his hands.  He lived life to the fullest right up to his last breath.  I'd probably follow his example and do the same.  Just as stubborn. 

Carmine D.

Venson


Joined: Jul 23, 2007
Points: 1900

Re: Research . . .
Reply #30   Aug 11, 2009 3:57 pm
Hi Carmine,

I was just putting out some examples but I am thoroughly assured that if you have that kind of stubborness that let's you tell the devil, "I don't care what you do to block my progress, I'm going on anyhow," it can't be a bad thing.

Best,

Venson
CarmineD


Joined: Dec 31, 2007
Points: 5894

Re: Research . . .
Reply #31   Aug 11, 2009 5:50 pm
Amen, Venson.
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